MLB HR props for Monday 9/4: Favorable price means it's Sho time

If you're reading this because you tailed my home run props last week, congratulations to you. We nailed at least one HR bet in four of the five days last week and ended the run up 19.3 units in total. Not too shabby, huh?

Let's keep the hot streak rolling with my three favorite HR props for Labor Day Monday.

Max Kepler (+480 FanDuel)

The Minnesota Twins are the ideal team to target in home run props for Monday's holiday slate. For one, Cleveland Guardians starter Lucas Giolito has surrendered the fifth-most home runs in MLB this season (30). The wind will also be blowing straight out to center at Progressive Field, creating a projected 26 percent boost to home runs, per Ballpark Pal. 

With so many factors working in Minnesota's favor, let's roll with Max Kepler, who's hit 17 of his team-leading 21 home runs this season off right-handed pitching. Kepler also has a ton of experience against Giolito, and he's cracked three homers off the righty in his career. Let's make it four on Monday night.

Trea Turner (+520 FD)

This is the perfect combination of a hot hitter and a great matchup. Trea Turner has been on fire with a .365 batting average, seven home runs and a league-leading 19 RBIs over the last 15 days. In 17 career at-bats against San Diego Padres starter Rich Hill, Turner is batting .471 with a home run and two doubles. Hill has been vulnerable lately with six home runs allowed over his last five starts, and I think Turner has the best chance of any Philadelphia Phillie to take him deep Monday night. 

Shohei Ohtani (+320 FD)

We haven't taken a shot on Shohei Ohtani in a while, so it's time to change that. The Los Angeles Angels slugger still leads the league with 44 dingers, but his price has crept up above +300 Monday because he's hit just one home run in his last 39 at-bats. 

Ohtani has faced Baltimore Orioles starter Grayson Rodriguez three times in his career. Those three ABs ended in a home run, a single, and a walk. It's a tiny sample size, but Ohtani clearly sees Rodriguez well.